3rd Quarter Market Update – Understanding the Fiscal Cliff and Its Impact on Interest Rates




Now that the election is over and the dust has settled, there is a lot of pent up demand out there after so many buyers (and sellers) had been waiting to see what impact the Presidential election might have on things. Today, we are seeing record numbers of sales across the country as well as continued low interest rates.

But now that things have calmed down from an election standpoint, the new buzzword is “fiscal cliff”. So what exactly is this fiscal cliff and what impact does it have on our housing industry?

For starters, it is important to understand the factors at hand dealing with our national financial picture in order to be able to see what lies ahead in terms of the housing market. As we slowly approach the New Year there will be a lot of issues at hand coming up. Among the things to consider that will impact our economy are tax cuts for individuals, tax breaks for businesses that are set to expire soon, plus the imposition of the 3.8% real estate tax to help support Obamacare. Additionally, Congress is expected to implement spending cuts as pat of the 2011 debt ceiling as well as the impending expiration of benefits for Americans without jobs.

The estimate for our Congressional budget remains at about $600 billion to be siphoned out of our economy come next year leaving the very stark possibility of yet another recession.

But where does this leave us in terms of buying and selling homes? Despite this uncertainty in our economy we are sure of one thing; interest rates will continue to hover at historic lows – at least for the time being.

As investors pull out of the stock market and focus their collective attention on bonds, we will see low interest rates continuing to dominate our housing market and even go a bit lower still. The one thing to be concerned with, however, is how long this will last. We expect to see more inflation as the government continues to mint money in an effort to keep the country out of a recession. This move will of course impact interest rates as they mirror the direction taken by inflation most of the time.

So before mortgage rates are back up to the 6 or 7 percent range, now is the chance for many homebuyers to embark on their real estate journey – before it’s too late. Industry analysts are expecting that sometime between 2013 and 2014 we will start to see a rise in rates again. After several years of being “spoiled” buyers will once again be back into reality, facing mortgage rates that will end up adding several hundred dollars or more to each monthly payment.

All this points to now being one of the best times in the history of our housing market to buy a home. We invite you to come into our office, meet with one of our team members and see what we have to offer. We are confident that we will be able to help you get the home of your dreams at less than market value! Contact us via voice or text today at 916.529.5342 or email Thomas@thomasmarch.com today!